AGP Executive Report

Wildfires: Turkish firefighters battled fresh blazes near Antalya, Fethiye and Ayvalık as strong winds reignited areas hit earlier this week; officials reported 115 wildfires since Wednesday, with most brought under control, and noted access restrictions to high-risk forest areas during the holiday season. NATO Air Policing: Türkiye deployed five F-16 jets and crews to Estonia’s Amari Air Base for a NATO mission from Aug. 1 to Nov. 30, with command shifting from Portugal. Lebanon-Türkiye Diplomacy: President Joseph Aoun met Erdoğan in Ankara, with both sides discussing Lebanon’s recovery and expanding military support and training, while Erdoğan reiterated Türkiye’s backing for Lebanon and regional stability. Anti-corruption Crackdown: Turkish police detained 55 people, including Etimesgut Mayor Erdal Beşikçioğlu and his deputies, in a corruption probe tied to opposition-run municipalities. Gaza Talks: Cairo negotiations on Hamas disarmament reportedly made progress, with a potential roadmap linking weapons oversight to troop withdrawal and an end to targeted killings.

Turkey-Iraq Energy & Trade: Erdogan says Iraq could supply Turkey with up to 1M barrels of oil a day as Ankara and Baghdad sign/advance multiple energy and cooperation deals, including Kirkuk-linked steps. Cyprus Diplomacy: UN chief Guterres is set to convene new talks on the divided island, with Turkey reiterating support for Turkish Cypriots and pushing back on Greek Cypriot positions. Regional Security: US-Saudi strikes in Iraq reportedly killed about 20 Iranian advisers; separate reports say Russia hit Kyiv with ballistic missiles hours after Zelenskyy warned of a major assault. Gaza/Hamas Contacts: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan met Hamas’s new political bureau chief Khalil al-Hayya in Ankara, with Ankara reaffirming support for Palestine. F-35 Politics: Trump again signals support for selling F-35s to Türkiye, but US legal conditions tied to S-400s still block progress. Local Governance & Public Safety: Wildfires force evacuations in parts of southwestern Türkiye, while Ankara continues anti-corruption pressure on municipalities. Sports & Culture: FIFA opens disciplinary proceedings over Argentina’s World Cup-related incidents; Türkiye’s embassy in Qatar marked July 15 Democracy and National Unity Day.

Cyprus Peace Push: UN chief António Guterres secured agreement for a new 5+1 Cyprus meeting after talks with Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders, with no date set yet and preparations tied to confidence-building steps. Ankara’s Position: Turkey welcomed the UN effort but reiterated that a settlement must rest on sovereign equality and equal status for Turkish Cypriots, urging the Greek Cypriot side to drop what Ankara calls intransigence. Local Anti-Corruption: Turkey detained 23 municipal officials in two separate probes, including Istanbul’s Üsküdar district mayor, alleging bribery over permits and fraudulent hiring schemes. Sudan Support: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Sudan’s top diplomat in Ankara, reaffirming Turkish backing for peace, humanitarian aid, and reconstruction. Iraq Energy & Trade: Turkey and Iraq signed five agreements and MoUs during Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi’s visit, including energy and transport cooperation, plus a Kirkuk oilfield stake deal involving TPAO and BP. Space Diplomacy: Turkey presented the International Astronautical Congress (IAC 2026) to foreign diplomats ahead of the Antalya event in October.

Turkey-Iraq Diplomacy: Iraqi PM Ali Al-Zaidi arrived in Ankara for talks with President Erdoğan on energy, trade, security and water, with officials pointing to a possible pipeline route linking Basra to Turkey’s Ceyhan port and Syria’s Baniyas, as well as broader infrastructure cooperation. Energy Deal Watch: Erdoğan said Turkey may receive up to 1 million barrels per day from Iraq after TPAO’s planned stake in BP’s Kirkuk project, following the expiry of the old Kirkuk-Ceyhan crude framework. Regional Security: Erdoğan reiterated Turkey’s push for peaceful solutions to regional disputes while the wider Middle East remains tense amid US-Iran escalation and missile intercepts. Strategic Cooperation: Türkiye and Iraq signed five agreements covering transport, education, industrial property, youth and sports, as both sides seek to deepen strategic ties. Sports Spotlight: Besiktas’ Mohamed Salah talks reportedly stalled over financial demands, with the club signaling it won’t improve its offer. Business & Tech: Curocell and Turkey’s Biruni Group advanced CAR-T therapy collaboration, aiming for local commercialization steps ahead of 2027.

Iraq-Türkiye Diplomacy: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi arrived in Ankara for talks with President Erdoğan, with agendas spanning security, water, investment, and major infrastructure, including energy and transport links. Trade & Border Modernization: Türkiye and Iraq aim to lift bilateral trade to $30B, with plans to upgrade customs procedures at the Ibrahim Khalil border crossing by integrating it into Iraq’s ASYCUDA system to cut delays and uncertainty. Defense & Regional Security: The meetings also underscore Ankara’s push to address long-running security challenges tied to northern Iraq and the PKK. EU/UN Cyprus Track: UN chief António Guterres held separate meetings with Cyprus leaders, seeking renewed momentum for talks after years of deadlock, while Turkish Cypriot leaders urged a more realistic settlement path. Wildfire Pressure in Europe: France and Spain brace for another heatwave as wildfires force evacuations and strain firefighting resources, with Macron warning the coming weeks will be “tougher than any since WWII.” Sports—Big Names, Big Moves: France appointed Zinedine Zidane as national team coach, while Italy brought back Roberto Mancini; in Turkey, Beşiktaş said it made an offer for free agent Mohamed Salah but negotiations hit a deadlock over financial terms.

F-35 Row: US President Donald Trump told reporters “Nobody tells me what we should be selling,” dismissing Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s objections to a possible F-35 sale to Türkiye as Netanyahu heads to Washington for talks on Iran and regional security. Diplomacy Watch: Trump is also set to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, seeking renewed US support as strikes and diplomacy over Ukraine remain stalled. Cyprus Track: UN chief António Guterres arrived in Cyprus for a packed schedule of meetings with Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders, aiming to restart unification talks. Security & Migration: Türkiye detained 85 illegal migrants off İzmir after coast guard operations involving surveillance tech; separately, a Canadian intern faces NATO-related spying allegations in Belgium. Economy & Trade: Türkiye’s tourism and cultural push continues with restored ancient sites in Antalya, while broader global coverage highlights how regional crises are reshaping commerce.

Cyprus Diplomacy: UN Secretary-General António Guterres is set to visit Nicosia to restart Cyprus talks, meeting President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman and holding a joint session at Nicosia airport, with Turkey again flagged as a key obstacle. Cyprus Poll in the North: A survey in Turkish Cyprus finds 65% back a Cyprus settlement, with 76% preferring a bizonal, bicommunal federation model—though 63.5% worry about implementation. Middle East Security (Yemen/Red Sea): Houthis claim they shot down a Turkish-made Bayraktar Akıncı drone operated by Saudi Arabia over Al-Jawf, amid escalating Red Sea tensions and debate over whether US involvement will widen the conflict. Türkiye-Iraq Ties: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi will visit Türkiye on Erdoğan’s invitation to discuss security, trade, energy, transport and water management. Sports (Türkiye in focus): Türkiye beat Brazil to win the Women’s Volleyball Nations League title, powered by MVP Melissa Vargas; and Beşiktaş says it has delivered Mohamed Salah’s final offer and expects a response soon. Archaeology (Turkey): Excavations near Konya uncovered a rare early Christian gold amulet and a Luwian-inscribed stone seal.

US-Iran De-escalation Signals: The US ambassador to the UN says Trump is giving Iran “some space” for talks after days of exchanged fire, while Iranian officials and reports warn any pause may be tactical rather than lasting. Red Sea Tensions: Yemen’s PM Shaya Zindani condemns Houthi attacks on commercial shipping as an “Iranian agenda,” urging tougher international deterrence to protect maritime corridors. F-35 & US-Turkey Friction: US officials reiterate Turkey still hasn’t met conditions for rejoining the F-35 program, keeping the dispute over S-400s and legal requirements in focus. Syria & Regional Diplomacy: Syria’s al-Sharaa praises Erdoğan’s role in lifting US sanctions, as Ankara continues diplomatic engagement around regional developments. CHP Opposition Split: Reuters reports most CHP MPs break away to form a new anti-Erdogan party, reshaping Turkey’s opposition math ahead of 2028. Sports—Volleyball & Salah: Turkey beats Brazil in a dramatic VNL Finals match; meanwhile, Besiktas waits on Mohamed Salah after a final contract offer. Black Sea Incident: A Turkish-flagged cargo ship reportedly sinks off Odesa after a Russian missile strike, killing 10. Wildfires: France and Spain evacuate hundreds of thousands as fires threaten Bordeaux.

Cyprus Showdown in Parliament: Turkey’s Grand National Assembly turned tense over a Yeni Yol proposal to rename the breakaway state and over Ankara’s Cyprus line, with debate spilling into EU ties and the “Blue Homeland” doctrine. Judicial Access Upgrade: Justice Minister Akın Gürlek says a new judicial hotline will let citizens track case timelines and reasons for delays, with “judicial efficiency offices” planned across all 81 provinces. Central Bank Rate Pressure: Turkey’s central bank kept the policy rate at 37%, but renewed Iran-related market stress is again complicating hopes for an effective rate cut. Yemen Drone Clash: Houthis claimed they shot down a Turkish-made Baykar Akıncı drone operated by Saudi Arabia over Al-Jawf. Gaza Reconstruction Steps: Israel’s security cabinet approved a pilot phase for a “Board of Peace” plan to restore services and provide shelters in areas outside Hamas control, expected to start in Rafah. Sports—Volleyball Glory: Türkiye beat Brazil 3-1 to win the 2026 Women’s Nations League title in Macao. Iraq-Turkey Links: Iraqi PM Ali Zeydi is set to visit Turkey to discuss economy, security and energy, including oil export mechanisms via Turkey.

F-35 Standoff: The US State Department says Turkey still hasn’t met legal conditions to rejoin the F-35 program, keeping the S-400 dispute and future assurances at the center of the dispute. Regional Energy & Water: Iraq approved activating the Iraq–Türkiye Water Framework Agreement, with financing for water projects set to start Sept. 1, while Baghdad also moves toward pipeline plans linking oil fields to global markets via Syria. Diplomacy in Ankara: A multi-country “Alliance Conference to Prevent a Major War” brought officials and academics to Ankara to discuss escalation risks around Ukraine and wider negotiations. Security & Tensions: Reports say Trump swapped aircraft during the NATO summit in Türkiye after a “credible threat” tied to Iranian proxy forces. Gaza Update: Israel killed the head of Hamas-led police in northern Gaza in an airstrike, as strikes also hit medics and other sites. Sports & Business: Turkish football transfer buzz includes Rafael Leão’s likely Milan exit with Fenerbahçe linked, while Türkiye–Pakistan trade talks via ICCI aim to push bilateral commerce from about $1.4bn toward $5bn.

Euro-Transfers & Süper Lig Buzz: Galatasaray have reportedly raised their offer for Real Madrid’s Morocco forward Brahim Díaz to around €15m, seeking more minutes, while Real Madrid want €25m; meanwhile Fenerbahçe denied making offers for AC Milan’s Rafael Leão and Stuttgart’s Ermedin Demirovic. Süper Lig Moves: Besiktas midfielder Wilfred Ndidi is linked with Saudi side Al-Ittihad, and Konyaspor is reported to be close to signing Nigeria defender Chidozie Awaziem. Sports Results: Turkey reached the Women’s Volleyball Nations League final after beating China 3-0. Economy Watch: Deutsche Bank lifted its Turkey inflation forecast to 30% and expects the policy rate to stay higher longer amid energy and geopolitical risks. Diplomacy & Security: Turkey advanced ties with Afghanistan on expanding agricultural cooperation, and Turkish officials condemned Israeli actions around Al-Aqsa as Israel widens its West Bank operation. Public Safety: A car fire at a petrol pump in Bursa saw a driver and passenger escape unharmed; the incident is under investigation.

Opposition Shake-Up: Türkiye’s main opposition CHP split deepened as Özgür Özel resigned and launched a new “Yeni Parti,” taking 90+ MPs and reshaping the parliamentary balance ahead of 2028. Defense Diplomacy: A Turkish parliamentary delegation held “solution-oriented” talks in Washington with US lawmakers on NATO, counterterrorism, F-35, and CAATSA sanctions. Air Security: Reports say Trump switched from Qatar-donated Air Force One after a credible Iranian-proxy threat, with the Secret Service pushing the older jet for added protection. Aerospace Industry: Turkish Utility Helicopter Program production is set to restart after renegotiation, with Lockheed Martin providing new Black Hawk kits following US licensing delays tied to S-400 fallout. Regional Tensions: Arab and Islamic countries condemned Israeli incursions into the Al Aqsa compound, calling them provocative and a violation of international law. Economy & Markets: Türkiye’s central bank kept its policy rate at 37% for a fourth straight meeting as analysts warn about inflation and external risks. Culture & Tourism: Türkiye’s Go Türkiye storytelling campaign is expanding with a new mini-series starring Sıla Türkoğlu and Serkan Çayoğlu, filmed across key cities.

Eurofighter Training: Türkiye’s first pilots and technicians are set to travel to the UK in August to begin Eurofighter Typhoon training under an £8bn deal, with annual personnel rotations. Media Regulation: RTÜK plans to license YouTube and other digital journalism channels, aiming to collect a 1.5% share of revenues and use AI to flag hate speech and ethics violations. Cyprus Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met UN envoy Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar ahead of Guterres’ Cyprus visit, reiterating that the “most realistic” path is coexistence of two states with Turkish Cypriots’ equal rights. Opposition Shake-up: Özgür Özel quit CHP to found a new party, reshaping Turkey’s opposition landscape and raising questions about its ability to challenge Erdogan. Economy & Energy: Türkiye’s central bank kept its policy rate at 37%, while Rosatom says Akkuyu’s commissioning is months away. Culture & Heritage: Erdogan marked six years since Ayasofya reopened for worship, highlighting ongoing restoration. Security Watch: US Treasury sanctioned Turkish and UK-based Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas-linked financial networks.

Turkey-Syria Ties: Türkiye and Syria signed an agreement to set up and run cultural centres across Syria, with Turkish-language courses and cultural promotion, as Ankara says relations are moving fast. Middle East Diplomacy: Iraq’s PM Ali Al Zaidi made his first visit to Tehran, announcing a joint economic committee and new agreements with Iran. Gaza/Palestinian Politics: Hamas elected Khalil Al Hayya as political bureau chief by a one-vote margin, with Gaza-backed Shura Council votes tipping the result. Economy & Markets: Türkiye’s central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 37%, with analysts warning inflation and external risks still limit room for easing. Security & Regional Tensions: Türkiye condemned Israeli settlers’ actions at Al-Aqsa, warning they threaten Jerusalem’s status and peace efforts. Travel Rules: Turkey’s strict passport requirements for UK travellers—like 150-day validity and blank pages—could lead to denied boarding or entry. Media/US Politics: The US Justice Department withdrew subpoenas targeting three New York Times reporters after legal errors, in a case tied to Trump’s Air Force One reporting.

Central Banking: Turkey’s central bank held its policy rate at 37% for the fourth straight meeting, citing renewed geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices. Constitutional Court: Türkiye’s top court ordered compensation for families of Madımak massacre victims, saying authorities failed to run an effective investigation. Local Politics: Ousted CHP leader Özgür Özel’s new party is unlikely to immediately take over CHP mayors, aiming to avoid local splits amid fragile council majorities. Cyprus Energy: Türkiye issued NAVTEX for seismic surveys tied to a planned gas pipeline to occupied north Cyprus, with work reserved until late August. Black Sea Security: A drone attack killed a sailor on a Turkish-flagged cargo ship off Samsun, with three others injured. Opposition & Governance: Reports say Özel’s party plans a “blank page” approach, while legal and investigation timelines may delay mayor transfers. International: Lavrov warned the US against further arms sales to Kyiv, calling it “unacceptable.”

Cyprus Energy Tensions: Turkey issued a NAVTEX for Oruc Reis seismic surveys tied to a proposed gas pipeline linking the mainland to occupied northern Cyprus, with work planned over coming weeks and Ankara framing it as energy-security groundwork. US-Turkey F-35 Deadlock: The US State Department told Congress Turkey still hasn’t met legal conditions to rejoin the F-35 program, citing the unresolved S-400 issue and required assurances. Strait of Hormuz Escalation: The US carried out a 12th night of strikes on Iran as both sides threaten civilian infrastructure; diplomacy efforts via regional mediators show little progress. Shipping Disruption: Maersk temporarily suspended its Chornomorsk service as attacks on ports and commercial shipping intensify, diverting traffic to Constanta, Romania. Regional Diplomacy Watch: Algeria and Mali moved to restore ties by reopening airspace and returning ambassadors, ending a year-plus standoff. Turkey’s Security/Politics: Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş said legislation for the Peace and Democratic Society process is aimed to be adopted before the summer recess, while a Strasbourg vigil for Öcalan marked its 734th week. Aviation Growth: Turkish Airlines signed for 12 Havelsan simulators to support fleet expansion to 800 aircraft by 2033.